Behind the hottest Sino Russian natural gas cooper

2022-08-14
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Behind the Sino Russian natural gas cooperation agreement: or raise the domestic natural gas price

on May 21, China and Russia signed the Sino Russian East gas supply purchase and sales contract, ending the Sino Russian natural gas negotiation "marathon" that began in 2004. Many analysts believe that once China and Russia reach a natural gas supply agreement, it will make China more diversified in energy sources, help to increase the proportion of clean energy, reduce dependence on coal, and thus reduce air pollution. However, regardless of the final price, the introduction of Russian natural gas is bound to raise China's domestic natural gas supply price. p>

just a few hours before the signing of the agreement, many observers were still generally skeptical about whether the agreement could be signed during Putin's visit, because PetroChina said until Putin's visit that it would not accept Russia's price requirements. Although Russia said that it was entering the final stage (in Putin's language), it was only one figure short (Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom), but people with a clear eye knew that, The reason why China and Russia have been wrangling over this issue for 18 years is actually this number

although one of the agreements finally signed is called the purchase and sale contract, and Miller said that he has not signed such a large order with any company and all problems have been basically solved, the contract itself still lacks that key figure. The contract stipulates that the east line will supply gas from 2018, which is valid for 30 years, with an annual supply of 38billion cubic meters, and may increase to 60billion, but refuses to disclose the contract price on the grounds of trade secrets, No one even knows whether this price is finally agreed

in terms of contract paper 5, microcomputer control, menu interface, PVC operation panel and large LCD display, there are not many breakthroughs: as early as 2007, Gazprom announced that it would supply gas to China in 2011 (West Line) and 2016 (east line) respectively, and reach 68billion cubic meters per year in 2020. The announced supply time and supply volume, Neither of them can meet this standard, but the two key prices that have led to the protracted natural gas supply problems between China and Russia and whether to adopt a long-term take or pay contract are almost not mentioned in the contract, memorandum and other public documents

AP quoted his energy analyst's analysis that the price may be closer to the level Russia wants, but the payment terms may be closer to China's requirements, that is, to reduce the proportion of advance payment

many analysts believe that once China and Russia reach a natural gas supply agreement, it will make China more diversified in energy sources, help to increase the proportion of clean energy, reduce dependence on coal, and thus reduce the degree of air pollution. However, regardless of the final price, the introduction of Russian natural gas is bound to raise the domestic natural gas supply price in China. A few days ago, the State Council of China approved and transmitted the opinions of the national development and Reform Commission on the key tasks of deepening the economic system reform in 2014, which mentioned that we should seize the time window of the overall stability of the current price level and actively and steadily promote the price reform of resource products and transportation, telecommunications, medicine, medical services, etc, This may mean that the domestic natural gas supply price will usher in another upward tide

for Russia, its economy is heavily dependent on resource exports, of which natural gas exports account for 10% of total exports, and natural gas export earnings account for 6% of Russian government revenue (capitaleconomics data), of which 71% of exports are sold to Europe (IEA data). Half of Gazprom's revenue comes from exports to Europe, and profits are the guarantee of its profits. In 2013, the company exported 174.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, a new high since 2008, with a profit of about US $60million (2.1 billion rubles). In the same period, the company sold 243 billion cubic meters of natural gas in Russia, but the profit was only 1/3 of the export profit to Europe (therefore, it was widely used in some products with low requirements for material performance of 794million rubles)

the Ukrainian crisis has worried Europe that its excessive dependence on Russian natural gas (Russian natural gas accounts for 30% of Europe's total natural gas consumption) will make it a victim of the Russian natural gas stick and a hostage to Russian natural gas. Therefore, it is slowly but irreversibly promoting the diversification of natural gas sources. In March this year, the European Union rejected Russia's proposal to use opal (the old pipeline from the former East Germany to the Czech Republic) for gas supply, It also refuses to discuss the construction of southstream gas transmission pipeline across the Black Sea to Italy. In June this year, the EU will hold a summit to focus on how to promote the diversification of natural gas sources. Both Europe and the United States are worried that excessive dependence on Russian natural gas will weaken the effectiveness of western economic sanctions against Russia, so they have been trying to reduce their dependence

however, although there is no shortage of natural gas sources, Europe, plagued by economic recession, is not easy to make up its mind to pay too high a price for energy diversification. Its ally the United States is also neither intentional nor able to pay for Europe's natural gas alternatives. Therefore, in a short time, Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas is likely to continue

for Russia, expanding diversified energy export channels is a strategic goal related to regime stability. As many analysts have said, the high benefits and subsidies that support the high support rate of the Russian government, as well as the funds that support the speed-up of the Russian economy, generally only apply investment in structural component experiments or brief data function experiments, and largely rely on natural gas exports. At a time when the Ukrainian crisis is constantly fermenting and European and American sanctions are being tightened, expanding the East, especially the Chinese market with the largest energy appetite, can not only spread risks, Offsetting sanctions can also show Europe and the United States that isolating Russia is useless. It is for this reason that Russia will show its eagerness and enthusiasm for reaching an agreement before and during Putin's visit

previously US Treasury Secretary Jacob During Lu's visit to China, he once called on China to avoid taking measures that might offset the sanctions against Russia, but he also admitted that China does have an urgent demand for energy, which is tantamount to suggesting that once China is determined to import Russian natural gas, the pressure of the United States is useless

however, even if China and Russia start natural gas supply on schedule (from the realization of numerous agreements and intentions between the two sides in the previous 18 years, there is no doubt), it is difficult to fundamentally change the pattern of China Russia Europe energy structure for the time being: even if calculated according to the high value of 60billion cubic meters expected by Russia, it is only equivalent to more than 1/3 of Russia's natural gas supply to Europe in 2013, and the profit is difficult to compare with that of exports to Europe due to comprehensive cost and price factors

at the beginning of this year, the Russian Ministry of energy issued a draft energy strategy for the next 20 years, which plans to double oil exports to Asia and quadruple natural gas exports in 2035. Perhaps only if this goal is achieved, the energy landscape of Russia, China and Europe will undergo qualitative changes, but the realization of this goal may be more difficult to predict, because it requires not only the active cooperation of China, Japan, another major energy importer in the Far East, is even more needed. Under the current geopolitical situation, it is really hard to say. Wen/Tao short room

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