Orange automation market domestic industrial robot

2022-05-25
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[orange automation · market] domestic industrial robots have entered the golden five years! According to the statistics of the international robotics Association, the latest data show that in 2015, there were 66 robot devices for every 10000 workers in the manufacturing industry, and only one year later, the number rose to 77. Through the survey of automation of these machines by foreign media, it is found that this trend continues to rise, The era of robots completely replacing human work seems to be getting closer and closer to us

it is hard for many people to imagine that the servo motor with the highest degree of automation in the world is still in Asia and South Korea. According to statistics, there are 631 robot equipment in the factory for every 10000 people in South Korea, and most robots are used in industrial departments and electronic engineering

2. Domestic industrial robots have entered the golden five years! From the middle and lower reaches, four families including KUKA ABB

under the dual stimulation of the strategic layout of "made in China 2025" and the structural shortage of the labor market, China's robot industry has entered a period of rapid growth. Since 2013, China has become the world's largest consumer market for industrial robots, and has remained so far. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of industrial robots in China reached 130000 in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Some analysts said that the compound growth rate of the robot market will reach about 20% in the next three years and is expected to reach 151.1 billion yuan by 2020

it is worth noting that the golden development period of China's industrial robots before 2015 mainly benefited from foreign brands such as the four global families of the robot industry represented by ABB, KUKA, FANUC and Yaskawa electric. In recent years, with the promotion of the localization of robot body and core parts, the acceleration of cost reduction (shortened investment payback period), artificial substitution and import substitution, the national brand leader in China's industrial robot industry is ushering in a golden age

3. The payback period of robot investment is significantly shortened

firstly, compared with manpower, industrial robots have the characteristics of low cost, high efficiency and 24-hour work. In recent years, with the rising labor cost in China, the labor advantage of China's manufacturing industry is not obvious, and the manufacturing industry urgently needs to transform to intelligence. Industrial robots show a strong development trend. Considering that the average efficiency of the robot can replace two workers, this is a huge loss. It can work 24 hours and the pull table is cylindrical. At present, the investment recovery cycle of the robot is about 2 years

in addition to the cost advantage, industrial robots can generally achieve a motion accuracy of less than 0.1mm, and the load capacity, stability and reliability are better than manpower. They can not only complete high-intensity fine processes, but also ensure the stability of product quality. For example, using robot polishing, the yield can be increased from 87% to 93%. The stability of product quality brought by robot makes the application expand continuously. According to the classification of downstream applications, at present, industrial robots are most widely used in automobile manufacturing and electronic industries, which have high requirements for load and accuracy. Other application fields include rubber and plastic industry, foundry industry, food industry, etc

4. Business classification of 437 domestic industrial robot enterprises

the ratio of system integration market to ontology market has continued to decline in the past five years. According to statistics, in 2017, the domestic robot body market is expected to be about 32 billion yuan, the system integration market is about 53.5 billion yuan, and the core parts market is about 21 billion yuan; The ratio of the three is 1:1.7:0.6. (considering that the core parts account for about 70% of the cost of the robot body and the gross profit margin of the robot body is%)

5. The growth rate of robot integration is lower than that of ontology

in recent years, the demand of China's robot market has increased rapidly, with the growth rate and market share far exceeding that of other countries. It has become the largest robot market in the world for five consecutive years

considering that the decline of robot price will stimulate market growth, Zhongtai Securities believes that the sales volume of robots in China is expected to exceed the industrial planning target (close to the predicted value of IFR) in the next three years, and the compound annual growth rate of sales is% and the sales volume of robot body is expected to reach 56 billion yuan by 2020. Considering that the ratio of system integration to ontology is about 1.7:1, the corresponding system integration market is 95.1 billion yuan. The robot market totaled 151.1 billion yuan

6. The two major markets of automobile manufacturing and 3C Electronics will bring a high outlook to the industry

industrial robots in China are widely used in automobile, electronics, plastics, food, metal processing and other industries. At present, they are mainly developed in the form of "automobile + Electronics" two wheel drive, accounting for 72% in total. Among them, the proportion of 3C electronics increased rapidly from 18% in 2012 to 29% in 2016

although about 70% of the global production capacity of 3C products is concentrated in China, the degree of automation is low. At present, the robot density in 3C industry is only 11 sets/10000 employees, while the robot density in Japan, South Korea and other countries exceeds 1200 sets/10000 employees. Zhongtai Securities believes that the 3C industry has high prosperity, short product cycle, fast renewal, and large room for robot density improvement. It is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in the future

7. The transfer of semiconductor industry chain will bring about a substantial increase in the demand for clean robots

since 2016, due to the joint promotion of technological innovations such as mobile applications, IOT, AI and 5g, the semiconductor industry has continued to rise. Due to the focus of national strategy and the support of industrial capital, the semiconductor industry represented by integrated circuits and panels has been transferred to the mainland. According to semi estimates, 62 leading semiconductor wafer fabs were put into operation in the world, of which 26 were located in Chinese mainland, accounting for 42%. p>

the following is a detailed analysis of the gap between the core technologies of Chinese and foreign industrial robots, that is, controllers, servo motors and reducers

1. The gap between the controller at home and abroad is the smallest

The

controller is the brain of the robot, which issues and transmits action instructions. It includes two parts: hardware and software: hardware is the industrial control board, including some main control units, signal processing and other circuits, which have been mastered by domestic brands; The software part mainly includes control algorithm and secondary development. Domestic brands still have a gap in stability, response speed and ease of use

2. Servo system foreign-funded enterprises occupy an absolute advantage

according to the white paper on the development of China's robot industry (2016 Edition), more than 80% of servo motors and drives are imported, mainly from Japan, Europe and the United States. Japanese brands monopolize the small and medium-sized OEM (equipment manufacturing) market with good product performance and competitive price

3. Market share of domestic robot server

reducer is used to accurately control robot action and transmit greater torque. At present, the market of robot reducer is highly monopolized, and domestic reducer cannot be fully imported and replaced in the popularization period

there are two types of reducers: RV reducers installed at heavy load positions such as base, boom and shoulder, and harmonic reducers installed at light load positions such as forearm, wrist or hand. RV Reducer is monopolized by nabotsk, Japan, and harmonic reducer is dominated by hamenaco, Japan

4. Market share of domestic robot reducer

however, after several years of development, domestic robot manufacturers have gradually risen, are rapidly producing large quantities, and have realized independent research and development and market promotion in some core parts (servo motor, controller, etc.)

the advantages of domestic robot body manufacturing are gradually established. The products are upgraded from medium and low-end robots (such as SCARA) to medium and high-end robots (such as six axes, high precision and heavy load), and the advantages are consolidated in the market-oriented application of system integration services, gradually catching up with foreign brands. Under the background of rapid development of the industry, domestic brands are expected to rise gradually

5. Domestic enterprises continue to try to break through the core parts of robots

at the time of the global wave of automation and the strategic layout of made in China 2025, the demand for industrial robots in the manufacturing industry is rising, and investors will bet on the layout of robots driven by the huge market with high return on investment and rapid renewal. Although the four families still monopolize the core technology, domestic industrial robot manufacturers are gradually rising and will enter the next golden five-year development period. Go back and see more

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