Morning express of steel market on December 5 and

2022-05-27
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On December 5, the morning express of steel city and the trend forecast of various varieties

heavy economic data were released at the weekend, and CPI is expected to rise slightly: the National Bureau of statistics will release the main macroeconomic data in November on December 9, including CPI, PPI, industrial production growth, investment and consumption. Due to the rise of food prices and the recovery of tail warping factors, the market generally expects that the year-on-year increase of CPI in November will rise slightly and return to the era of "2%". In addition, some economic indicators may fall, but it will not change the steady recovery momentum of the economy in the fourth quarter. The world is focusing on qe4 or the introduction of fiscal and monetary policy of the United States in 2013: China's economy has stabilized in the third quarter, but the biggest uncertainty about the trend of the coming year comes from the external environment. The European debt crisis is basically hopeless to be solved in the short term. The fiscal and monetary policy of the world's largest economy, the United States, in 2013, has become the most important variable affecting the trend of the global economy. The world is also watching whether the United States will launch a fourth round of quantitative easing to deal with the possible excess dollar at any time. The Political Bureau set the tone for next year's economy: focus on improving the quality and efficiency of growth: on December 4, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to set the tone for next year's economic work, pointing out that next year will focus on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, seek progress while maintaining stability, explore and innovate, make a solid start, further deepen reform and opening up, further strengthen innovation drive, strengthen and improve macro-control, and actively expand domestic demand, We will strengthen the strategic adjustment of the economic structure, strive to ensure and improve people's livelihood, enhance the endogenous vitality and driving force of economic development, maintain the basic stability of the overall price level, and achieve sustained and healthy economic development and social harmony and stability. [iron and steel and related information] the "war" between North and South steel mills may inhibit the process of North material going south: Northeast steel mill has issued a series of price reduction and promotion policies to increase the strength of steel going south, but at the same time, South steel mill is also sharply reducing the ex factory price. Around the routine "North material going south" every winter, the atmosphere between North and South steel mills this year is full of "gunpowder smell". According to the survey report, the planned amount of construction steel for steel mills in Northeast China this year has increased significantly compared with last year. The total amount is expected to be between 10000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons compared with last year. In addition, the arrival time is also earlier than last year. In 2013, China's steel exports are expected to continue to exceed 20% year-on-year: Chris Park, vice president and senior credit rating director of Moody's, predicted in the report that China's demand for steel will increase by 2% - 4% year-on-year in 2013. The implementation of recently approved infrastructure projects and the moderate growth of exports will be the main factor driving demand; China's steel exports are expected to continue to exceed 20% year-on-year in 2013, which will make it difficult for Asian steel producers to significantly improve their profit margins. 13 key cities saw a 219% month on month increase in November: the recovery of the property market is constantly stimulating the land market. According to the latest data of Zhongyuan group, the supply area of operating land in 13 key cities in November increased by about 219% month on month compared with October. In Wuhan, six land transfer meetings will be held in December to launch 121 state-owned construction land, close to the total supply of 133 land sold in the first 10 months of this year. Ningbo plans to transfer 730000 square meters of land in December, more than the sum of the previous November. Some subway projects are approved ahead of the 12th Five Year Urban Rail Transit plan and make another breakthrough: with the approval of subway projects in many cities in advance this year and the approval of a large number of projects next year, the whole 12th Five Year Plan determines to realize the national urban rail transit operation mileage of 3000 kilometers, which is expected to exceed and rise to about 4000 kilometers. However, there are also some risks in the early approval of a large number of projects. An authoritative expert pointed out that the population size of many places did not meet the standard of building subway. At present, how to get a return on the subway investment of billion yuan per kilometer in the future has become a problem. [overview of steel spot market] on Tuesday (12.4), the raw material market, futures and stock average rebounded slightly yesterday, which continued to form a certain positive support for the spot steel price. The rebound psychology of merchants was very obvious. Yesterday, the steel price stabilized as a whole and partially rose. However, market transactions remained low, high price resources were ignored, and the rebound in steel prices in the later stage was unsustainable. According to market monitoring, as of the closing on December 4, the average price of 6.5mm high-speed wire was 3529 yuan, up 8 yuan; The average price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar was 3627 yuan, down 4 yuan; 5.5mm plain carbon hot rolling was reported as 3853 yuan, up 3 yuan; The average price of 1.0mm cold plate was 4572 yuan, down 2 yuan; The average price of 20mm medium plate was 3699 yuan, down 1 yuan; The average price of 1.0mm galvanizing is 4772 yuan/ton, flat; The average price of 0.47mm color coating is 5507 yuan, flat; 2.5 * 145 strip steel tax included 3320 yuan, up 60 yuan; The average price of 4-inch (3.75mm) welded pipe was 3740 yuan, which automatically formed a report, down 4 yuan; The average price of 108 * 4.5mm seamless pipe was 4453 yuan, down 5 yuan; The average price of 25# I-beam was 3851 yuan, up 4 yuan; The average price of 25# channel steel was 3756 yuan, down 8 yuan; The average price of 5# angle steel was 3711 yuan, up 7 yuan; The average price of 200 * 200H section steel was 3712 yuan, down 2 yuan. [overview of steel futures market] on December 4, the main rebar 1305 contract of the previous Exchange opened at 3546 yuan/ton in the morning on December 4, and then the price showed a volatile upward trend throughout the day, with a minimum of 3536 yuan/ton and a maximum of 3569 yuan/ton, closing at 3562 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day (3 days), with 1566298 transactions, 1226182 positions and 31570 positions. [overview of raw material market] iron ore: (12.4) the overall weakness of raw material market is stabilizing. [domestic ore] Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder dry basis, tax included 1010 yuan/ton; The tax included price of Benxi% acid iron concentrate dry basis is 900 yuan, and the tax included price of Anshan 65% iron concentrate dry basis is 920 yuan/ton. The purchase price of some steel mills continues to decline. [imported ore] 63.5% of major domestic ports print powder and quote yuan; 61.5% Australian pink reported yuan. 63.5% printing powder is offered in US dollars; 58/57% mainstream in USD; 61.5% of the quotation of Australian powder is in US dollars. Billet: (12.4) billet market rebounded slightly; Tangshan ordinary carbon 150 * 150 square billet 3050 yuan; Low alloy billet 3170 yuan, up 30; Wuhan rose 20, Handan rose 40, Tianjin rose 20, the rest rose; [forecast of spot market on December 5] yesterday, the spot steel price continued to rise slightly, and the merchants' willingness to rebound in the short term was obvious, but the high transaction was blocked and it was difficult to make it go; After a short passion, the market will fall into consolidation again, so we expect the overall stability of steel prices today. Rebar: Shanghai secondary thread consolidation on the 5th, Ф The quotation of MM sand steel rebar is 3570 ~ 3580 yuan; Guangzhou deformed steel bar may be stable, and the quotation of Shaoguan Steel with the same specification is 3720 ~ 3730 yuan; Changsha thread or stable, the quotation of Pinggang screw of the same specification is 3760 ~ 3770 yuan; Beijing thread or down 10, Shougang thread quote 3470 ~ 3480 yuan. Wire: on the 5th, Shanghai Q235 wire rose by 10, and Haixin 6.5mm high-speed wire reported 3490 ~ 3500 yuan; Guangzhou wire rod or stable, Shaogang 3830 ~ 3840 yuan; Changsha wire or up 10, Pinggang reported 3650 ~ 3660 yuan; Beijing wire rod may remain stable, and Shougang's price is reported at 3360 ~ 3370 yuan. Medium and heavy plate: Shanghai medium plate may be stable on the 5th, and the quotation of 20mm medium and heavy plate of Masteel is 3780 ~ 3790 yuan; Guangzhou medium plate or weak, Liugang offers 3770 ~ 3790 yuan with the same specification; Changsha ordinary board may fall by 20, and Xianggang offers 3840 ~ 3860 yuan; Beijing Puzhong board or weak, Tiangang offers 3590 ~ 3600 yuan with the same specification. Hot coil: Shanghai hot coil may strengthen on the 5th, and the price of Q235 5.5mm Shagang hot coil is reported at 3930 ~ 3940 yuan; Guangzhou General coil or stronger, Anshan Iron and steel with the same specification coil price of 3930 ~ 3940 yuan; Changsha pujuan or many Jinan experimental machine manufacturers held steady, and the price of Lianyuan Steel hot coil was reported at 3970 ~ 3980 yuan; Beijing General coil is temporarily stable, and the price of Tanggang coil is reported at 3800 ~ 3810 yuan. Cold plate: on the 5th, how about the bearing elasticity of Shanghai cold plate or expansion spring testing machine? The price of 10, 1.0mm cold plate is 4650 ~ 4660 yuan quoted by Angang; The price of cold plate in Guangzhou may remain stable, and Angang Cold plate is reported at 4640 ~ 4650 yuan; Changsha cold plate or stable, Wuhan Iron and steel cold plate with the same specification is reported as 4510 ~ 4520 yuan; Beijing cold plate or strong, Angang reported 4670 ~ 4680 yuan

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